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Slide 15 of 24

JAN: And in keeping with my ecocyle approach we can move from the forest with its trees to examine organizational and institutional death..... growth and renewal. We can learn a lot from the forest metaphor--at any time in the forest you have sub-sets of trees--some in exploitation some in conservation--others in creative destruction and then renewal. These processes...as well as the transitions between them are widely observed tendencies of natural systems. Due to the complex nature of the system there is nothing inevitable about the timing of the changes. But most ecosystems go through these steps in this order...Exploitation-- conservation--creative destruction--renewal. Exploitative or - hunter species in a forest are the pioneers. They are the opportunists who can take quick advantage of the open space that has appeared. But gradually over time these generalists die..... niche specialists appear. Their homogeneity in age, species type and specialized adaption to their protected niche renders them vulnerable....and we begin to have deadwood. We now know it's best not to try to control forest fires too tightly. This is creative destruction--the forest fire is a natural part of death and renewal. Nonetheless.....this phase often sees much of the capital that has been accumulated in large scale structures during the period of growth quickly destroyed as the system becomes disorganized.

At this point the ecosystem can enter a so called FAR FROM EQUILIBRIUM CONDITION. The far from equilibrium condition has a special meaning in the study of nonlinear systems.