FORECASTING The Present & The Future

Dr. Janet Poley, President
American Distance Education Consortium (ADEC)

Champaign, Illinois
October 16, 2000

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1. FORECASTING The Present & The Future
   Janet Poley
   President
   American Distance Education Consortium (ADEC)
2. Distance Education
   
   • Taking learning opp. to the people
   • Taking learning opp. to the wealthy
   • Taking learning opp. to the suburbs
   • Taking learning opp. to the educated
   • -D.C., Silicon Valley, Austin, Seattle,
3. Growth in DE
   • Fastest growing segment in higher ed
   • On-Campus market large Movement toward “one price” per credit
   • Estimated to be $2 billion by 2003 (Merrill Lynch)
   • Not just a matter of learning environments
4. State of the Global Net
   • Increasingly wireless-U.S. lagging
   • More languages - English 51% over-all:78% of websites-96% e-commerce
   • Developing countries lag (Africa)
   • Venture Capitals shifting outside U.S.-14 of 46 in U.S.(Europe, Asia-Pacific)
   • Open Systems:SCORM,IMS,XML,WAP
5. New Big Initiatives
   • The Army - SOC - SOCAD
   • Other Services Close Behind
   • Private Sector Captures Courses - WEB-CT, Pearsons, Portals
   • Global Consortia
   • ????

6. So What Is Key?
   
   • Content
   • Communication
   • Caring
   • Continuous Improvement
   • ??
   • ??

7. Brian Hawkins:Educause
   • New Markets Smaller than Predicted?Where,What language,Willing to Pay
   • Public-on-campus residential course demand increasing
   • Understanding economics/cross-subsidies is critical
   • Institutions cannot participate effectively alone
8. Cooperation Essential
   “Already we see consortia emerging among institutions aligned as strong competitors in a submarket - more will be formed.”
9. Partnerships
   Success may come through non-profit and for-profit partnerships creating the new learning environments
10. Hawkins Continued
    • Significant Market Shakeout: process driven by partnerships & consortia and ultimately the marketplace
    • No untold riches here
    • Colleges and universities will be buyers
    • Alternative models will continue to emerge

11. Faculty Motivation
    • Employment models available will increase
    • Institutions have to change and support faculty to do this in partnerships and dot.com
    • Support systems will increasingly be outsourced

12. The Technology
    • Less Obtrusive
    • Convergence
    • Appliances
    • Unbundling
    • Learning Environment/One Piece

13. The Digital Divide
    • Rural/remote
    • Underserved
    • Largely income based
    • Currently getting wider
14. Heterick Comments on DD
    • “We should worry about the unhappily slow roll-out and high cost of high speed digital connectivity. To produce really compelling learning applications, we will most often require megabit access. “
15. The Real Digital Divide
    • “At the current roll-out rate of our phone companies’ digital subscriber line technology and the cable companies symmetrical broadband services, we will be severely limited in what we can design in the way of new learning environments for quite some time to come.”
16. ADEC Vision No More Back Roads
    • Reach into communities less than 25,000
    • HBCUs, Tribal Colleges, Hispanic Serving
    • Developing Countries
17. Pretty Good Internet
    • DSL
    • Satellite Wireless
    • LMDS
    • Radio wireless
    • Protocols
18. Do We Need…..
    • INTERNET 3….
    • -Learning
    • -Global Relationships
19. Best of On-Line
    • Learner Centered
    • Learner Motivation Critical
    • Learning Environments/Resources only one part
    • Communication with Faculty and Peers Critical
    • Assessments - Cont/Summative
20. New View
    • Less Canned
    • More Design
    • Big Opportunities for Software
    • May Really Be More Like CAD/CAM
    • Things We Are Doing Now with Blackboard,WEB-CT etc.-Resources
    • Convergence with Administrative Systems
21. Improving Access and Applications
• Bandwidth offers “realism” with instructional potential for more concrete and complex symbols and visuals
• Bandwidth offers “voice” and affect
• Two-way offers active engagement and adaptation to learners
• Synchronous offers immediacy and responsiveness
22. The Four Ethical Issues
    
    • Privacy
    • Accuracy
    • Property
    • Accessibility
23. Legal Issues
    
    • Access: E-Rate, FCC-wireless to tribal lands and spectrum mgt.
    • Broadband Deployment:tax incentives, NSF, PITAC
    • Distance Learning:financial aid, copyright framework - DMCA
    • IP ©right - Napster
24. Legal Issues (Cont.)
    • IP: Trademark Issues, ICANN, Database Protection - .edu domain
    • Internet Content Reg: filters
    • Privacy:Students, Consumers, Opt In
    • Digital Signatures: authentication
    • Internet Taxation
    • State Issues