- FORECASTING The Present & The Future
Janet Poley
President
American Distance Education Consortium (ADEC)
- Developing Global Learning Communities
- Worldwide Relationships - Interconnections Growing - families,
education, businesses, communication, transportation
- Worldwide Digital Divide
- Language and Cultural Issues
- Ethics Is Key
- Learning Oriented Policies in A Bandwidth
Crazy World
- Why Build GLCs
- Knowledge Is World’s Best Hope
- Greater Participation Enriches Possibilities
- Maslow Had It Right - building from basic human needs to self-actualization
- Cooperative Structures Must Be Built Together
- Growth in DE
- Fastest growing segment in higher ed
- On-Campus market large
- Movement toward “one price” per credit
- Estimated to be $2 billion by 2003 (Merrill Lynch)
- Not just a matter of learning environments
- Global Transformation through Learning
- We Are In Transition
- Affordable Global Access Is Important
- Focus on What We Can Do with New Telecommunications Options -
Not Just Networks
- Communication and Understanding that Communities are Built on
Relationships
- The Four Ethical Issues
- Privacy
- Accuracy
- Property
- Accessibility
- State of the Global Net
- Increasingly wireless-U.S. lagging
- More languages - English 51% over-all:78% of websites-96% e-commerce
- Developing countries lag (Africa)
- Venture Capitals shifting outside U.S.-14 of 46 in U.S.(Europe,
Asia-Pacific)
- Open Systems:SCORM,IMS,XML,WAP
- Global Consortia
- Organized Efforts Can Lead the Way
- Developmental Approach Is Key
- Laboratories for Experiential Learning
- Long-term Linkages
- Trust Takes Time
- Creative and Collaborative Problem Solving Become Possibl
- Brian Hawkins:Educause
- New Markets Smaller than Predicted? Where,What language,Willing
to Pay Public-on-campus residential course demand increasing Understanding
economics/cross-subsidies is critical Institutions cannot participate
effectively alone
- Cooperation Essential
- “Already we see consortia emerging among institutions aligned
as strong competitors in a submarket - more will be formed.”
- Partnerships
- Success may come through non-profit and for-profit partnerships
creating the new learning environments
- The Technology
- Less Obtrusive
- Convergence
- Appliances
- Unbundling
- Learning Environment/One Piece
- Hawkins Continued
- Significant Market
- Shakeout:process driven by partnerships & consortia and ultimately
the marketplace
- No untold riches here
- Colleges and universities will be buyers
- Alternative models will continue to emerge
- The Digital Divide
- Rural/remote
- Underserved
- Largely income based
- Currently getting wider
- ADEC Vision No More Back Roads
- Reach into communities less than 25,000
- HBCUs, Tribal Colleges, Hispanic Serving
- Developing Countries
- Internet 2 and 3?
- Convergence - text, audio, video
- Aggregation - teaching templates, middleware, business processes
-many will be gone - 2-3 surviving models
- Business models - no magic answers yet - private sector is poised
- Labor question and international partnerships
- Next Generation DE
- XML
- Sharing of Learning/Electronic Objects-Open Systems - Interoperability
- Collaboration - Improved Tools - Both Synchronous and Asynchronous
- Network of Servers - Caching - Getting Over the Ditch
- The High-Applications
- High-quality video/audio distribution
- Interactive collaboration environments
- Visualization of remote data
- Remote control of instruments
- Multimedia enhanced e-business applications
- Digital Universities
- Digital Universities
- High Performance Internet Applications
- Intelligent Collaboratories
- Digital Technology
- Transfer Systems
- Information Engineering Applications
- E-Commerce and Business Processes
- New Business Model
- New Applications
- Virtual clinics, laboratories
- Net-based virtual auditoriums
- Animations
- Streaming and teleconferencing
- Internet voice telephone
- Revived MOOs and MUDs
- Graphical virtual reality
- Best of On-Line
- Learner Centered
- Learner Motivation Critical
- Learning Environments/Resources only one part
- Communication with Faculty and Peers Critical
- Assessments - Cont/Summative
- New View
- Less Canned
- More Design
- Big Opportunities for Software
- May Really Be More Like CAD/CAM
- Things We Are Doing Now with Blackboard,WEB-CT etc. -Resources
- Convergence with Administrative Systems
- Improving Access and Applications
- Bandwidth offers “realism” with instructional potential for more
concrete and complex symbols and visuals
- Bandwidth offers “voice” and affect
- Two-way offers active engagement and adaptation to learners
- Synchronous offers immediacy and responsiveness
- Creating Success
- “The most successful educational organizations - the ones that
others will want to emulate - will be establishing design sensibilities
that create new ideas for marketplaces as well as marketplaces for
ideas.” Michael Schrage Educom Review
- The Full Motion Video Myth for Learning
Applications
- Television & Internet Convergence
- 50 Years of Television Research - What Makes A Difference?
- Sight, Sound, Text, Cueing
- Content,Packaging,Dissemination, Manipulation,Terminals
- Attribute Analysis, Virtual Reality
- Framework for Successful Change
- In Colleges/Universities top-down bureaucratic,centralized corporate
strategies don’t work and are counterproductive
- Scarce resource today is not Bandwidth, but people who can create
and innovate in the knowledge age
R. Birnbaum
How Academic Leadership Works - Jossey Bass
- Maslow Had It Right
- The more evolved people get, the more psychologically healthy
they get. More enlightened management policy is necessary in order
to survive in competition, and the more handicapped an enterprise
with an authoritarian policy will be.
A. H. Maslow
Maslow On Management - John Wiley
- Successful Collaborative Outcomes
- Competence
- Shared, Understood Goal
- Mutual Respect, Tolerance & Trust
- Creation and Manipulation of Shared Spaces
- Multiple Forms of Representation
- Continuous Communication
- Collaboration (cont.)
- Formal and Informal Environments
- Clear Lines of Responsibility but Not Restrictive Boundaries
- Decisions Not by Consensus
- Physical Presence Not Necessary
- Selective Use of Outsiders for Insights
Michael Schrage
No More Team
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