- FORECASTING The Present & The Future
Janet Poley
President
American Distance Education Consortium (ADEC)
- Bandwidth Supply and Demand
- Assuming new applications and 30% annual growth in usage for
current applications there will be a 20 fold increase in bandwidth
demand by 2001 - there is a severe oversupply: 400 times increase
in supply
Mark Bruneau and Pascal
Aquirre: Renaissance Worldwide
- Learning Oriented Policies in A Bandwidth
Crazy World
- Growth in DE
- Fastest growing segment in higher ed
- On-Campus market large
- Movement toward “one price” per credit
- Estimated to be $2 billion by 2003 (Merrill Lynch)
- Not just a matter of learning environments
- Organizational Renewal NOT Just Money
on Bandwidth
- 1996 Telecom Act Flawed
- Greater Concentration/Megamergers
- Increased Costs
- Focused Capital Away from Access and Service Innovation -Favors
Network Infrastructure
- More Connectivity than Uses
- The Four Cultures of the Academys
- Collegial
- Managerial
- Developmental
- Negotiating
William Bergquist
Jossey-Bass
- The Four Ethical Issues
- Privacy
- Accuracy
- Property
- Accessibility
- New Big Initiatives
- The Army - SOC - SOCAD
- Other Services Close Behind
- Private Sector Captures Courses - WEB-CT, Pearsons, Portals
- Global Consortia
- ????
- State of the Global Net
- Increasingly wireless-U.S. lagging
- More languages - English 51% over-all:78% of websites-96% e-commerce
- Developing countries lag (Africa)
- Venture Capitals shifting outside U.S.-14 of 46 in U.S.(Europe,
Asia-Pacific)
- Open Systems:SCORM,IMS,XML,WAP
- Brian Hawkins:Educause
- New Markets Smaller than Predicted? Where,What language,Willing
to Pay
- Public-on-campus residential course demand increasing
- Understanding economics/cross-subsidies is critical
- Institutions cannot participate effectively alone
- Cooperation Essential
- “Already we see consortia emerging among institutions aligned
as strong competitors in a submarket - more will be formed.”
- Partnerships
- Success may come through non-profit and for-profit partnerships
creating the new learning environments
- Faculty Motivation
- Employment models available will increase
- Institutions have to change and support faculty to do this in
partnerships and dot.com
- Support systems will increasingly be outsourced
- The Technology
- Less Obtrusive
- Convergence
- Appliances
- Unbundling
- Learning Environment/One Piece
- Hawkins Continued
- Significant Market
- Shakeout:process driven by partnerships & consortia and ultimately
the marketplace
- No untold riches here
- Colleges and universities will be buyers
- Alternative models will continue to emerge
- The Digital Divide
- Rural/remote
- Underserved
- Largely income based
- Currently getting wider
- Heterick Comments on DD
- “We should worry about the unhappily slow roll-out and high cost
of high speed digital connectivity. To produce really compelling
learning applications, we will most often require megabit access."
- ADEC Vision No More Back Roads
- Reach into communities less than 25,000
- HBCUs, Tribal Colleges, Hispanic Serving
- Developing Countries
- Pretty Good Internet
- DSL
- Satellite
- Wireless
- LMDS
- Radio wireless
- Protocols
- Internet 2 and 3?
- Convergence - text, audio, video
- Aggregation - teaching templates, middleware, business processes
-many will be gone - 2-3 surviving models
- Business models - no magic answers yet - private sector is poised
- Labor question and international partnerships
- Next Generation DE
- XML
- Sharing of Learning/Electronic Objects-Open Systems - Interoperability
- Collaboration - Improved Tools - Both Synchronous and Asynchronous
- Network of Servers - Caching - Getting Over the Ditch
- Practically This Means
End of Lower Cost Productions Maybe
- High-quality video/audio distribution
- Interactive collaboration environments
- Visualization of remote data
- Remote control of instruments
- Multimedia enhanced e-business applications
- Digital Universities
- Digital Universities
- High Performance Internet Applications
- Intelligent Collaboratories
- Digital Technology
- Transfer Systems
- Information Engineering Applications
- E-Commerce and Business Processes
- New Business Model
- New Applications
- Virtual clinics, laboratories
- Net-based virtual auditoriums
- Animations
- Streaming and teleconferencing
- Internet voice telephone
- Revived MOOs and MUDs
- Graphical virtual reality
- Net-based Auditorium
- New idea - stay at home - no learning center - all the features
of a smart classroom -slides, application sharing, student voting
and feedback at a distance.
- Requires pentium machine, client tools (plug-ins)-Centra Software’s
symposium system-Place Ware’s auditorium system
- Check Out Applications
- More Applications
- Best of On-Line
- Learner Centered
- Learner Motivation Critical
- Learning Environments/Resources only one part
- Communication with Faculty and Peers Critical
- Assessments - Cont/Summative
- The Real Digital Divide
- “At the current roll-out rate of our phone companies’ digital
subscriber line technology and the cable companies symmetrical broadband
services, we will be severely limited in what we can design in the
way of new learning environments for quite some time to come.”
- New View
- Less Canned
- More Design
- Big Opportunities for Software
- May Really Be More Like CAD/CAM
- Things We Are Doing Now with Blackboard,WEB-CT etc. -Resources
- Convergence with Administrative Systems
- Improving Access and Applications
- Bandwidth offers “realism” with instructional potential for more
concrete and complex symbols and visuals
- Bandwidth offers “voice” and affect
- Two-way offers active engagement and adaptation to learners
- Synchronous offers immediacy and responsiveness
- Legal Issues
- Access: E-Rate, FCC-wireless to tribal lands and spectrum mgt.
- Broadband Deployment:tax incentives, NSF, PITAC
- Distance Learning:financial aid, copyright framework - DMCA
- IP & Copyright - Napster
- Legal Issues (Cont.)
- IP: Trademark Issues, ICANN,Database Protection - .edu domain
- Internet Content Reg: filters
- Privacy:Students, Consumers, Opt In
- Digital Signatures: authentication
- Internet Taxation
- State Issues
- Creating Success
- “The most successful educational organizations - the ones that
others will want to emulate - will be establishing design sensibilities
that create new ideas for marketplaces as well as marketplaces for
ideas.” Michael Schrage Educom Review
- The Full Motion Video Myth for Learning
Applications
- Television & Internet Convergence
- 50 Years of Television Research - What Makes A Difference?
- Sight, Sound, Text, Cueing
- Content,Packaging,Dissemination, Manipulation,Terminals
- Attribute Analysis, Virtual Reality
- Framework for Successful Change
- In Colleges/Universities top-down bureaucratic,centralized corporate
strategies don’t work and are counterproductive
- Scarce resource today is not Bandwidth, but people who can create
and innovate in the knowledge age
R. Birnbaum
How Academic Leadership Works - Jossey Bass
- Maslow Had It Right
- The more evolved people get, the more psychologically healthy
they get. More enlightened management policy is necessary in order
to survive in competition, and the more handicapped an enterprise
with an authoritarian policy will be.
A. H. Maslow
Maslow On Management - John Wiley
- Successful Collaborative Outcomes
- Competence
- Shared, Understood Goal
- Mutual Respect, Tolerance & Trust
- Creation and Manipulation of Shared Spaces
- Multiple Forms of Representation
- Continuous Communication
- Collaboration (cont.)
- Formal and Informal Environments
- Clear Lines of Responsibility but Not Restrictive Boundaries
- Decisions Not by Consensus
- Physical Presence Not Necessary
- Selective Use of Outsiders for Insights
Michael Schrage
No More Teams
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